The
hard numbers on climate change
As nations discuss how to meet the
goals of the Kyoto Protocol on controlling climate change, the Washington-based
Worldwatch Institute released figures on recent global carbon emissions and
energy sources.
Fossil Fuel Use and Renewable
Energy
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World fossil fuel consumption declined 0.2 per cent in 2000, but fossil fuels still account for 90 per cent of commercial energy use, with 25 per cent of world energy derived from coal and 41 per cent from oil; global oil use was up 1.1 per cent in 2000.
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World coal consumption was down 4.5 per cent in 2000; China, which also accounts for 25 per cent, used 3.5 per cent less coal in 2000 than in 1999.
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Wind power is the world’s fastest growing energy source over the last decade, and grew by 30 per cent in 2000. Wind power accounts for less than 1 per cent of electricity worldwide, but recently passed 15 per cent in Denmark.
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Production of solar electric cells jumped 43 per cent in 2000; by comparison, nuclear generation increased by just 0.5 per cent.
Carbon Emissions
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Global carbon emissions fell for the third straight year in 2000, to 6.3 billion tons (-0.6 per cent); global carbon emissions increased 6 per cent in the decade of the 1990s, compared to the 15 per cent gain in the 1980s, 29 per cent in the 1970s, and 58 per cent in the 1960s.
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US carbon emissions are now 13 per cent above 1990 levels, a sharp contrast with the 7 per cent cut in greenhouse gases by 2010 that the US agreed to in Kyoto; the increase in US emissions between 1990 and 2000 exceeds the combined increase of China, India, and Africa.
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Japan, due for a 6 per cent reduction by 2010 is now 13 per cent above the 1990 mark.
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EU carbon emissions are now 0.5 per cent below 1990 levels, due in large measure to substantial reductions in coal burning in Germany and the U.K.; additional effort is needed to reach the EU’s Kyoto target of 8 per cent below 1990 levels in 2010.
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Carbon emissions in China fell 18 per cent between 1996 and 2000; by contrast, emissions grew 80 per cent in South Korea during that period, and increased 57 per cent in India.
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In the US, carbon emissions from vehicles in 1997 (291 million tons) exceeded total emissions of all but a few nations; US fuel economy for new cars has failed to improve since the mid-1980s, due to the growing popularity of sports utility vehicles.
The Impact of Climate Change
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Scientists have detected a 40 per cent reduction in the average thickness of Arctic ice over the past 40 years; at the current rate of warming, the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by mid-century, which could severely affect the flow of the Gulf Stream and the climate of northern Europe.
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An estimated 27 per cent of the world’s coral reefs are now severely damaged, up from 10 per cent in 1992. If global warming persists, as many as 60 per cent of all reefs could be lost by 2030 and with them the sheltering effect from storm damage they provide for coastlines.
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During the 1990s the economic toll from natural disasters topped $608 billion, more than the previous four decades combined; as sea levels rise and weather extremes become more common in the coming decades, our vulnerability to natural disasters will continue to grow.
Source: Worldwatch
Institute press release, based on figures from Vital Signs 2001 and other
Worldwatch publications.
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